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A study by Oriana Skylar Mastro, published in the journal Security Studies, offers a novel framework for understanding great power military alignment, reveals the nuances of military cooperation between China and Russia, and dissects its implications for global security.
The Next Tripartite Pact?
The Next Tripartite Pact?
China, Russia, and North Korea’s New Team Is Not Built to Last
With contributions from military, government, and academic experts, a new volume explores what changes will be necessary in the U.S. military budget to keep the nation secure in a new geopolitical environment. A chapter by Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro focuses on how to update military spending to enhance U.S. capability to deter Chinese ambitions in Taiwan and beyond.
For a half-century, America has avoided war with China over Taiwan largely through a delicate balance of deterrence and reassurance.
Despite changes in China’s forces and the illegal invasion of Ukraine, the United States does not need to increase the numbers of its nuclear arsenal, argues Oriana Skylar Mastro in a new report.
U.S.-Taiwan semiconductor collaboration would allow the United States to deepen its commitment to Taiwans’ democracy and help deter threats to end it, argue Kharis Templemena and Oriana Skylar Mastro in a new report.
In the 'Journal of Theoretical Politics,' Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro and co-author David Siegel offer a new formal model of wartime negotiations to explain why states may choose to delay or avoid talks in favor of indirect forms of bargaining. They illustrate the model’s balance using case study evidence of North Vietnam’s approach during the Vietnam War and historical examples from other cases.
The award, established by the Air Force Headquarters Readiness and Integration Organization, recognizes Mastro’s expertise as a China scholar and foreign defense analyst, as well as her leadership, job performance, self-improvement, and base and community involvement.
FSI Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro, an expert on Chinese military and Asia-Pacific security, joined APARC Visiting Scholar Gita Wirjawan, host of the “Endgame” video podcast, to consider the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan and what measures could help deter a potential war over the island.
Tokyo must make clear at home and abroad that defending Taiwan is no longer off the table.
At the Yomiuri International Conference, Freeman Spogli Institute scholars Larry Diamond, Francis Fukuyama, Oriana Skylar Mastro, Michael McFaul, and Kiyoteru Tsutsui examined lessons from the war in Ukraine, the risks of a crisis over Taiwan, and the impacts of both geopolitical flashpoints for defending democracy and for a coordinated approach to deterrence in the Indo-Pacific.
Understanding the Stakes in Taiwan
Larry Diamond and Oriana Skylar Mastro join Michael McFaul on the World Class podcast to discuss China’s ambitions against Taiwan, and how the U.S. and its allies can deter Beijing.
The fellowship, established by the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada, recognizes Mastro’s exceptional scholarly contributions in the fields of Chinese military, Asia-Pacific security, war termination, and coercive diplomacy.
With Xi at the helm for a third term, we should expect to see a more assertive China and more turbulence in the regional and global order, say APARC Director Gi-Wook Shin and Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro. They offer their assessments of the outcomes of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party and its implications for China’s trajectory and U.S.-China relations.
Despite obstacles and risks, there are good reasons why South Korea should want to increase deterrence against China. In a new article, Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro and co-author Sungmin Cho chart an optimal strategy for Seoul to navigate the U.S.-China rivalry and support efforts to defend Taiwan.
A new Asia Policy roundtable considers whether and how minilateral groupings, such as the Quad and AUKUS, can deter coercion and aggression in the Indo-Pacific. The roundtable co-editor is APARC South Asia Research Scholar Arzan Tarapore, and it opens with an essay by Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro.
Research Assistant Spotlight: Jerome He Examines Great Power Competition with Oriana Skylar Mastro
Political Science major Jerome He ‘24, spent the summer assisting APARC Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro. He leveraged the opportunity to expand his knowledge of Chinese security issues and refine his research acumen. We spoke with He about his experience as a research assistant and his time working for Dr. Mastro.
Providing a focused analysis of the challenges China poses to U.S. interests, Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro offers readers a means to identify and understand the various strategic threats presented by the superpower on the rise.
In the wake of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, how are Chinese strategists and scholars assessing U.S. deterrence strategy? What are the implications for Taiwan? Leading foreign affairs expert Oriana Skylar Mastro analyzes a newly translated article by a senior Chinese scholar which concludes that while the United States failed to deter Putin’s aggression, its actions in Ukraine are nonetheless impacting Beijing’s foreign policy calculations.
China Hasn’t Reached the Peak of Its Power
Why Beijing can afford to bide Its time
China’s Huge Exercises Around Taiwan Were a Rehearsal, Not a Signal, Says Oriana Skylar Mastro
Nancy Pelosi’s visit was more pretext than provocation.
Political maneuvers like Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan only anger Beijing but ultimately do not address the key issue of whether the United States has the military capabilities needed to protect Taiwan, argues Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro.
Expanding upon classic deterrence strategies, Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro proposes an underutilized path to deterrence in which Guam — a remote U.S. outpost that has become a strategic hub as tensions with China rise — would remain a crucial logistical waypoint, even in the face of potential Chinese missile attack.
Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro talks to the Center For Advanced China Research about the risk of Chinese attacks on U.S. military bases in Asia at the outset of a Taiwan conflict, the likelihood of Japanese or NATO involvement in a war over Taiwan, the downsides of focusing on communicating resolve to defend Taiwan, whether the United States is “outgunned” by China, and more.
Deciphering China’s intentions is a pressing task for U.S. scholars and policymakers, yet there is a lack of consensus about what China plans to accomplish. In a new study that reviews the existing English and Chinese language literature on intentions and revisionism, Center Fellow Oriana Skylar Mastro offers five propositions to allow for a more productive and data-driven approach to understanding Beijing’s intentions.